Commercial Insurance Market Remains Firm, But Shows Early Signs of Moderation

According to the latest data from the Ivans Index, the commercial insurance market continues to stay firm overall. Nevertheless, there are early signals that conditions may be easing from the peak tightening we’ve seen in recent years.

For most major commercial lines, average premium renewal rates increased year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is a sign that carriers are still disciplined in their pricing. They demonstrate careful underwriting. However, some lines showed moderation or even decreases compared to the prior quarter.

Here is some notable data by line of business (Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025):

Lines Showing Reduced Renewal Momentum

• Commercial Auto: Average renewal rate declined to 6.97% from 7.60% last quarter potentially indicating more competitive pricing or underwriting tightening easing. Based on other reports I regularly monitor, I don’t expect this to be the case anytime soon.
• Business Owners Policy (BOP): Averaged 7.52% with a slight reduction vs Q3.
• Workers’ Compensation: Continued its downtrend with a -1.61% change. Still negative but a modest move compared with prior quarters.

Lines Still Firm or Hardening

• General Liability: Saw a notable increase……7.23% in Q4 vs 5.89% in Q3.
• Commercial Property: Continued upward momentum with an average 8.01% renewal change.
• Umbrella: Also ticked up slightly, ending the quarter at 9.49%.

The data suggests the overall market is still firm, particularly in liability and property exposures where carriers remain cautious. That said, the softening in some lines, like commercial auto and workers’ compensation, indicates that carriers are adapting. They are reacting to evolving risk conditions and competitive dynamics.

For insureds, expect continued firm conditions in key exposures, especially if loss activity or inflationary pressures persist.

One thing that remains consistent, proactive risk management and strong loss history remain crucial differentiators when negotiating renewals with underwriters.

If you’d like help analyzing how these market trends impact your portfolio, I can also help with your renewal strategy. Feel free to reach out. I’m here to help you navigate this dynamic landscape.

-JK